WOD Science takes a deep dive into CrossFit Open history to predict what 2025 might bring.
The CrossFit Open has been a global fitness phenomenon since its launch in 2011, uniting athletes from all levels—elite competitors to garage gym warriors. It’s more than just a competition; it’s a test of fitness, resilience, and adaptability. With 14 years of Open programming behind us, patterns have emerged, giving insight into what athletes can expect each year.
However, 2025 marks a new chapter. CrossFit HQ has made significant changes—most notably the elimination of Quarterfinals. This makes the Open even more crucial, as the top 1% of athletes will now advance directly to Semifinals.
By analyzing past trends, we can predict possible workout formats, key movements, and programming themes likely to show up this year. Will there be a repeat workout from past Opens? Or will HQ surprise athletes with something entirely new?
Let’s break down the data to anticipate how the 2025 CrossFit Open might unfold.
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Key Trends in CrossFit Open Programming
After 14 years of programming, several patterns have emerged. From workout formats to movement selection, understanding these trends can help athletes better prepare for the challenges ahead.
Common Workout Types
CrossFit Open workouts typically fall into three main formats:
- AMRAPs (As Many Rounds/Reps as Possible)
- For Time Workouts
- 1-Rep Max (1RM) Strength Tests
Of these, AMRAPs and For Time workouts dominate the programming, often testing athletes’ ability to push their limits under fatigue while maintaining form and efficiency. AMRAPs are particularly useful for HQ since they allow athletes to keep moving without needing time caps to align perfectly across different divisions.
In recent years, 1RM lifts have gained popularity, often included after high-volume work to test strength under fatigue. These heavy lifts—clean and jerk, deadlift, or thruster—allow athletes to showcase both power and endurance.
Most Frequent Movements
Certain movements have become staples in Open workouts, appearing year after year. Among the most common are:
- Double-Unders
- Thrusters
- Muscle-Ups
- Chest-to-Bar Pull-Ups
- Toes-to-Bar
These movements have become synonymous with the Open because they test both skill and engine, creating a clear distinction between intermediate and elite athletes. Movements just outside the top five include deadlifts, burpees, and cleans, which frequently appear as part of high-intensity, full-body combinations.
Emerging Trends in Recent Years
While some elements of the Open have remained consistent, CrossFit HQ always keeps things fresh by introducing new elements. Recent years have revealed several emerging trends that could continue into 2025.
- Increased Use of Dumbbells: Movements like dumbbell snatches, lunges, and thrusters have become common, adding a unique challenge to traditional barbell-focused workouts.
- Higher Skill Complexity: The Open has progressively increased the difficulty of gymnastics movements, such as integrating strict handstand push-ups and high-volume muscle-ups earlier in workouts.
- More Monostructural Work: Running, rowing, and jump rope elements have been showing up more frequently, emphasizing endurance alongside traditional functional fitness.
- Grip Fatigue Challenges: Workouts that tax grip—through pull-ups, cleans, and dumbbell work—are appearing more often, forcing athletes to strategize and manage fatigue carefully.
Predictions for the 2025 CrossFit Open
Based on these trends, several predictions for 2025 seem likely:
- Higher-Level Movements Early
With the elimination of Quarterfinals, expect to see advanced movements—such as handstand walks or ring muscle-ups—show up earlier in the Open, as only the top 1% will advance. - Repeat Workouts
CrossFit loves to test athletes’ progress through repeat workouts. It’s highly likely that a fan-favorite workout from past Opens will make a comeback. For example, Open Workout 19.1 (wall-ball shots and rowing) or 16.2 (toes-to-bar, double-unders, and cleans) could be primed for a repeat. - Balanced Programming
The challenge for HQ will be balancing accessibility for new athletes with the higher-level demands of top athletes. Expect heavier weights paired with technical movements in a way that gradually increases complexity across the three weeks.
Deep Dive into Workout Programming
Workout Structure Predictions
Workout sequencing will likely follow a familiar pattern—starting with accessible movements and increasing complexity as the weeks progress. Expect early workouts to combine moderate-weight barbell movements with basic gymnastics, while later workouts introduce technical elements like handstand push-ups and Olympic lifts.
Thrusters, a hallmark of the Open, are almost guaranteed to show up. Wall walks, which surprised athletes in 2021, might also make a return, especially given how well they challenge coordination, strength, and stamina.
Gymnastics and Strength Tests
Gymnastics movements will continue to be a significant focus. Expect a mix of kipping and strict handstand push-ups, toes-to-bar, and pull-up progressions to appear. For strength, a 1RM test seems likely—perhaps a clean, thruster, or even a new twist on the complex barbell tests seen in recent years.
Strategy for Athletes
With these predictions in mind, athletes should approach the 2025 Open with a strategic mindset. Here are a few key preparation tips:
- Master the Basics: Movements like double-unders, toes-to-bar, and thrusters will almost certainly appear. Dial in form and efficiency to avoid costly no-reps.
- Pacing Is Critical: Avoid the temptation to go all-out in the first minute. Workouts are often designed to reward consistent pacing and efficient transitions.
- Train Grip Endurance: With grip fatigue becoming more common, prioritize grip-intensive accessory work in training—farmer’s carries, hanging holds, and barbell cycling can help build strength and stamina.
- Balance Conditioning and Strength: Athletes should be ready for anything—train for heavy lifts under fatigue and focus on aerobic capacity to handle high-rep, long-duration workouts.
WOD Science Predictions: CrossFit Open 2025 Workouts
Based on 14 years of Open programming trends and recent workout patterns, WOD Science predicts that 2025 will include a mix of classic elements, new movement combinations, and well-structured tests of strength, stamina, and skill. Here’s a breakdown of potential workouts for this year:
Open Workout 25.1
15-Minute AMRAP
- 15 Wall Balls (20/14-lbs, 10’/9′ target)
- 10 Dumbbell Box Step-Overs (50/35-lbs, 24″/20″ box)
- 50 Double-Unders
Key Features:
- Wall Balls and Double-Unders are staples in the CrossFit Open, making their appearance likely.
- Dumbbell Box Step-Overs are introduced, offering a twist on Dumbbell Step-Ups (seen in 19.3), but this specific movement hasn’t been tested before.
- No barbell or complex gymnastics makes this workout accessible to a broad range of athletes while still challenging endurance and coordination.
- A well-balanced test of stamina, coordination, and lower-body strength, perfect for kicking off Week 1.
Open Workout 25.2
Part A: For Time (10-Minute Cap)
- 15-12-9
- Squat Cleans (135/95 → 185/125 → 225/155-lbs)
- Bar-Facing Burpees
Part B: 5 Minutes to Establish a 1-Rep Max Clean and Jerk
Key Features:
- Squat cleans with ascending weights demand smart pacing and efficiency, especially as the weights increase.
- Barbell cycling is followed by a 1-rep-max (1RM) clean and jerk, similar to previous Open workouts like 20.4 and 16.2.
- A 1RM strength test is overdue, last seen in 21.4 and 23.2B, making its return highly likely in 2025.
- This workout balances conditioning and strength, ensuring athletes are tested on multiple levels of fitness.
Open Workout 25.3
For Time (15-Minute Cap)
- 21 Thrusters (95/65 lbs)
- 15 Pull-Ups
- 9 Wall Walks
- 15 Thrusters (115/85 lbs)
- 12 Chest-to-Bar Pull-Ups
- 6 Kipping Handstand Push-Ups
- 12 Thrusters (135/95 lbs)
- 9 Ring Muscle-Ups
- 3 Strict Handstand Push-Ups
Key Features:
- Thrusters, a signature CrossFit movement, appear with a progressive weight increase, testing both strength and stamina under fatigue.
- The gymnastics progression builds logically, moving from pull-ups to more advanced movements like handstand push-ups and ring muscle-ups.
- Wall Walks make a return, last seen in 23.3, adding a challenging mix of strength and coordination.
- This workout demands smart pacing and strategy, especially with heavy thrusters closing out the workout under fatigue.
Final Thoughts on Workout Predictions
If the 2025 Open looks anything like these predicted workouts, athletes will face a well-rounded challenge that blends classic CrossFit tests with innovative twists. Expect to see a mix of strength, skill, and endurance, with a focus on progressive difficulty that separates the elite from the rest.
To succeed, preparation will be key. Master your thrusters, improve grip endurance, and refine barbell cycling under fatigue. Most importantly—train smart and stay adaptable.
